The U.S. military is in a crisis. Through the second month of FY2024, active Army and Navy recruitment fell 30-40 percent short of recruiting goals. Army Reserves, Navy Reserves, and Air National Guard recruitment fell by 20 percent or more.
These numbers are a continuation of a grim trend. Over the last decade, the propensity to serve has declined from 15 percent to 9 percent, while the proportion of recruiting-age Americans qualified for service has fallen from 30 percent to 23 percent. There is a growing disconnect between servicemembers and civilian society, as less than 1 percent of Americans actively serve and the number of living veterans could decrease by upwards of 34 percent over the next 25 years.
The recruitment crisis can be chalked up in part to views of the military itself. Many American institutions have lost the trust of the general public—the military is no exception to this. Confidence in the military is at a record low (60 percent compared to 73 percent five years ago) and among recruitment-age youth, only 40 percent express significant support.
The United States has cultivated an image of war as easy and inexpensive despite a poor record of performance. Since World War II, the U.S. has tied in Korea, lost Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and won the first Gulf War. A record of 1-3-1 can not be viewed as a success.
From 1949 to the adoption of the All-Volunteer Force (AVF) in 1973, the U.S. had 19 overseas military deployments. Between 1973 and 2012, there were 144. This ramping up of deployment often came under false pretenses and costly debt financing, further chipping away at public trust while simultaneously disassociating the costs of war from American life. Since 9/11, approximately 40 percent of U.S.-led wars have been financed through foreign borrowing, rather than through taxes or bonds.
In reality, the U.S. government has spent an extra $925 billion (on top of $2 trillion in direct war spending) on interest repayment alone since 2001. The American public is still subsidizing these efforts but is detached from their stake in the conflict. The reality of our many wars no longer touches the general populace.
Our All-Voluntary Force is failing rapidly. This presents the U.S. as weak to our enemies and allies. It is also a threat to our national security. We become embroiled in unending wars while lacking the manpower to defend ourselves or see campaigns through to their ends. The price of war has been shouldered by a miniscule portion of the population, largely from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. These service members and their families grapple with combat deaths, suicides, debilitating injuries, PTSD, and substance abuse. Meanwhile, richer Americans, including our legislators who send these men and women off to war, are overwhelmingly absent from service.
A pilot completes final checks before takeoff on a night refueling mission over Kansas, at Grissom Air Reserve Base, Ind.
AP Images
The failure of the AVF has resulted in our over-dependence on our nuclear arsenal to defend ourselves, as we lack the troops to succeed in direct combat with Russia or China. In recent years, we have been called on our nuclear bluffs as Russian President Vladimir Putin demands a fifth of Ukraine in its ceasefire proposal and China encroaches on Taiwanese sovereignty.
Lasting peace is in the best interest of our nation. That will happen only when every American has a direct stake—whether monetary or physical—in its execution.
A lottery-based draft of all eligible Americans, regardless of gender, in any fiscal year where recruiting goals are not reached, would minimize military intervention, bolster national security, and reduce the likelihood of nuclear war. Conscription (without the possibility of deferment or exemption) would make up for the deficit in recruitment. And we must put an end to funding wars through foreign loans; instead, they would be funded by buying bonds and levying taxes.
Taxpayer-financed, mandatory service would transform how the U.S. conducts itself militarily. The American public would be necessarily invested in the costs of war, as their health, families, and funds are at stake. This would dispel the notion that war is simple, cost-free, and something to rush into headlong. Moreover, a military composed of more than just the most willing 1 percent would foster increased trust in the institution itself as more people become involved in its functioning. It would put weight behind our threats, allowing us to more effectively discourage attacks and prevent nuclear war.
The U.S. government has demonstrated to the public that they are willing to lie their way into constant conflict. The only way to restore trust, interest, and caution in our military is by ensuring all Americans have skin in the game.
Major General (Retired) Dennis Laich served 35 years in the Army Reserve. He held various command positions, most recently as commander of the 94th Regional Readiness Command in Ft. Devens, Mass. Laich is a senior fellow at Eisenhower Media Network and author of Skin in the Game: Poor Kids and Patriots.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.
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